Reaction from the field
The recent events surrounding coups in Madagascar and Argentina serve as stark reminders of the fragility of democratic institutions and the historical scars left by military rule. The coup in Madagascar, which saw Colonel Michael Randrianirina seize power from President Andry Rajoelina on October 12, 2025, has raised significant concerns about the future of governance in the region. While the Southern African Development Community (SADC) opted not to suspend Madagascar, citing the High Constitutional Court’s approval of the power transfer, the African Union (AU) took a firmer stance, declaring the change unconstitutional.
In a striking parallel, Argentina recently marked the 50th anniversary of its last military coup, an event that continues to resonate deeply within the national consciousness. Thousands marched in Buenos Aires to honor the estimated 30,000 individuals who were forcibly disappeared during the dictatorship’s ‘Dirty War.’ This national holiday serves not only as a remembrance of past atrocities but also as a call to vigilance against the potential resurgence of authoritarianism.
Justice Elena Kagan’s hypothetical question during a U.S. Supreme Court oral argument regarding presidential immunity and military coups underscores the global relevance of these issues. “He’s gone. Let’s say this president who ordered the military to stage a coup. He’s no longer president, he wasn’t impeached, he couldn’t be impeached, but he ordered the military to stage a coup. You’re saying that’s an official act. That’s immune?” Kagan’s inquiry reflects the complexities surrounding the legality and morality of military interventions in governance.
Randrianirina’s promise to restore a democratic civilian government within 18 to 24 months is a crucial aspect of Madagascar’s political landscape. However, the effectiveness of this commitment remains to be seen, as the country grapples with the implications of a coup that many view as a betrayal of democratic principles. The dialogue process to restore civilian rule, as emphasized by various stakeholders, must be inclusive to ensure a broad representation of the populace.
The historical context of coups reveals a pattern of instability that often follows such power transitions. In Madagascar, the term “coupvolution” has been coined to describe the recent transfer of power as a culmination of popular revolution leading to a coup. This term encapsulates the complexities of public sentiment and the desire for change, even when it manifests through undemocratic means.
As Argentina reflects on its past, the memory of the military dictatorship serves as a cautionary tale for nations worldwide. The marchers in Buenos Aires symbolize a collective commitment to never forget the victims of state violence and to remain vigilant against the erosion of democratic norms. The estimated 30,000 disappeared individuals stand as a testament to the human cost of political repression.
Looking ahead, the situation in both countries remains fluid. In Madagascar, the international community will be watching closely to see if Randrianirina can deliver on his promise of restoring democracy. Meanwhile, Argentina’s ongoing struggle to confront its past will likely continue to influence its political discourse and societal values. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these events, but the stakes are undeniably high for the future of democracy in both nations.
